“Researchers are surprised at what they are finding because these ancient droughts have always been considered remarkable events which happened only in prehistory...The conclusion now, that we may be actually converging on one of these events, is really something else.”
University of Arizona
Trebbia River bed, Italy
Cold and dry; that is our general climate forecast for the next three decades. In parts of North America, Europe, Asia and the African continent, these climate conditions began a decade ago and continue to worsen as we approach a new winter the Northern hemisphere.
I believe it is very important for the general population to understand the dangers the approaching climate regime presents to our social infrastructure, especially in light of current geopolitical conditions which are already impacting access to water, food and energy on a global scale.
It is important for the general public to know because your tax dollar funded institutions of science, academia and governments around the world already know what is to come, but for some reason withhold that information from lesser humans and the media. (LINK),
So to explain what is happening and why, I will use data from those same scientific, academic and government sources from around the world. Data which has been peer reviewed and published many times in recognized journals and which is readily available and linked throughout the article, below.
1. Extreme Weather
2. Weather and Solar Cycles
3. Mechanics of Sun Spots and Solar Cycles
4. Heliospheric Current Sheet & Planetary Geomagnetic Storms
5. Solar Cycle Extremes
6. Mega-Drought & Tree Rings In The Americas
7. Gradual Atmospheric Water Loss
8. Water Loss & Planetary Magnetic Field Strength
9. Historical Warming & Societal Impact
10. Historical South American Climate Impact
11. Historical Cooling & Societal Impact
12. Hunger Stones (Hungersteine)
13. Drought in Europe Today
14. Water Wars
15. Summary & Conclusions
1. Extreme Weather
2022 has become a year of weather extremes with deadly flooding and crop-destroying drought happening simultaneously around the world. (LINK), (LINK), (LINK),
Today those nations in on the Western portion of the African continent have too much rain while the Eastern part of the continent is losing its battle against starvation brought about by severe drought. In Iraq the historic Tigris river flow has been reduced by half because its head-water in Turkey and the many tributaries normally feeding it on its journey through Turkey and Syria have all but dried up. (LINK), (LINK),
Pakistan and parts of India are experiencing deadly flooding yet only six months ago the extreme heat in those nations resulted in crop and water losses similar to what China is currently going through.
As a result of these conditions, India has announced that it will limit exports of food crops in an effort to support its own population so stock up on rice while you can. (LINK), (LINK), (LINK), (LINK),
Western China is experiencing torrential down-pours and land slides while the North-East, Central and Southern regions, the breadbasket of China, are seeing their crops failing, their rivers drying up, their hydroelectric power lost and manufacturing crippled.
It is difficult to quantify the impact this will have not only on exports but also within their own food chain, yet it will have an impact and it is already being felt by global supply chains and finance. (LINK), (LINK), (LINK), (LINK),
If your first thought was that this happens quite frequently on continents in the Eastern hemisphere you would be correct, however it happens on Western continents as well. Instrument and satellite data collected over the past many decades combined with historical evidence shows that weather extremes visit different nations in a variety of ways and over cycles which are decades, and longer, in duration.
2. Weather & Solar Cycles
Mr. Drew Lerner, who studies and reports on crop production for the food industry noted in January of this year that our Western Hemisphere, both North and South are subject to similarly destructive cycles;
"Recent weather extremes in South America have wowed the world just as some of the impressive heat did last summer in southwestern Canada and the US Pacific Northwest. Both South America and North America can trace some of these weather extremes back to major solar cycles that coincide with La Niña and Pacific Decadal Oscillation among other known weather patterns that can create extreme conditions.
The pattern will continue in North America during the spring and summer of 2022 and some of the extremes seen in South America recently should be interpreted as foreshadows of what may be coming to the central United States in a few months.” (LINK),
Mr. Lerner, like many in business, banking and academia relies heavily on solar cycle observations to foresee the future of our atmosphere over the near and long term. This practice has been in use since humans learned to count 'sun spots' and still today the practice of watching the Sun offers an advantage to the observer. (LINK), (LINK),
3. Mechanics of Sun Spots and Solar Cycles
Sun-spots are a surface manifestation of electromagnet activity at and below the Photoshere (bright exterior of the Sun). Their quantity and location above or below the solar equator is an indicator of the Sun's electromagnet polarity and strength of its radiation, with the north and south polarity reversing every eleven years.
In a 2014 article published in 'The Sun Today', solar physicist Dr. Alex Young describes the creation and morphology of the solar magnetic field and resulting sun-spots as,
“ A complex process inside the sun called the solar dynamo. The magnetic field starts off as basically up and down, i.e. roughly straight lines between the north and south poles.
The sun is not solid so the equator rotates the fastest and as you move away from the equator (towards the poles), the sun rotates at slower and slower speeds. The sun takes about 25 days to make a complete rotation at the equator and about 35 days at the north or south pole.
The sun is made up of a type of material called plasma and plasmas are magnetic. This means the plasma drags the magnetic field with it over time as it is rotating. The field gets all twisted (like a twisted rubber band) and eventually floats to the visible surface of the sun (photosphere). The magnetic field comes through the photosphere in concentrated regions called sunspots.”
As their strength increases these magnetic fields slowly migrate towards the North and South poles of the Sun where they will begin to weaken the existing polar magnetic fields; “The fields that creep towards the poles are opposite polarity to the fields at the poles. The strength of the magnetic field at each pole slowly reduces to zero until it switches polarity. The switch happens around the peak of solar activity or the time we call solar maximum.” (LINK),
4. Heliospheric Current Sheet & Planetary Geomagnetic Storms
A solar magnetic field change is felt by the outer planets because the Heliospheric Current Sheet which emanates from the Sun's equator is connected to the magnetic fields and atmospheres of celestial bodies well out past the Kuiper belt. (LINK),
Holly Zell at NASA writes that the Sun's magnetic field, “...permeates the entire solar system called the heliosphere. All nine planets orbit inside it. But the biggest thing in the heliosphere is not a planet, or even the sun. It's the current sheet -- a sprawling surface where the polarity of the sun's magnetic field changes from plus (north) to minus (south).
A small electrical current flows within the sheet, about 10−10 A/m² (amps per square meter). The thickness of the current sheet is about 10,000 km near the orbit of the Earth. Due to the tilt of the magnetic axis in relation to the axis of rotation of the sun, the heliospheric current sheet flaps like a flag in the wind. The flapping current sheet separates regions of oppositely pointing magnetic field, called sectors. As Earth orbits the sun, it dips in and out of the undulating current sheet.
On one side the sun's magnetic field points north, on the other side it points south . South-pointing solar magnetic fields tend to cancel Earth's own magnetic field. Solar wind energy can then penetrate the local space around our planet and fuel geomagnetic storms. “ (LINK), (LINK),
Heliospheric Current Sheet
5. Solar Cycle Extremes
In the natural sciences journal 'Temperature', Valentina Zharkova of the Northumbria University in the United Kingdom describes recent discoveries which have identified cycles of electromagnetic energy fluctuation, revealing the presence of not only 22 year solar cycles but also of Grand solar cycles with a duration of 350 to 400 years.
Ms. Zharkova writes that "These Grand cycles are formed by the interferences of two magnetic waves with close but not equal frequencies produced by the double solar dynamo action at different depths of the solar interior. These grand cycles are always separated by grand solar minima of Maunder minimum type, which regularly occurred in the past forming well-known Maunder, Wolf, Oort, Homeric, and other grand minima.
During these grand solar minima, there is a significant reduction of the solar magnetic field and solar irradiance, which impose the reduction of terrestrial temperatures derived for these periods from the analysis of terrestrial biomass during the past 12 000 or more years.
The discovery of double dynamo action in the Sun brought us a timely warning about the upcoming grand solar minimum when solar magnetic field and its magnetic activity will be reduced by 70%." (LINK), (LINK),
Our most recent grand solar minimum, the 'Maunder Minimum' began more than 375 years ago and ushered in a brutally cold period across much of the Northern Hemisphere for a period of 65 years, from 1645 to 1710. During that time the weak solar output led to a decrease of the average terrestrial temperature measured in Europe by 1.0 to 1.5 °C (1.8 to 2.7 °F). This seemingly small decrease in the average temperature in the Northern hemisphere led to frozen rivers, cold long winters, and 'missing' summers.
Judith Curry, President (co-owner) of Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) and past Professor and Chair of the School of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences at the Georgia Institute of Technology has studied solar activity and its effect on Earth and her findings confirm those of Young, Learner and Zharkova.
CFAN research covering the previous 3000 years shows, “...about 9 grand cycles of 350–400 years, with the times of their grand minima having remarkable resemblance to those reported from the sunspot and terrestrial activity in the past millennia Maunder (grand) Minimum (1645–1715), Wolf grand minimum (1200), Oort grand minimum (1010–1050), Homer grand minimum (800–900 BC), combined with the warming periods: medieval (900–1200), Roman (400–10 BC) and other ones occurred between the grand minima.” (LINK),
CFAN's work reveals the modern grand solar minimum (GSM) approaching the Sun in 2020–2056 with Zharkova et al in agreement that our current period of solar minimum output began in 2020 yet they expect it to last until 2053.
What CFAN, Zharkova and others are saying is that our world is about to get much cooler and dryer.
6. Mega-Drought & Tree Rings In The Americas
To complement Drew Learner's reporting on current drought conditions I quote the University of Arizona's tree-ring researchers who offer some detailed climate history of the United States stretching back more than a millennia,
“Mega-droughts, by definition, are occasional events of unusual severity lasting for at least 20 years. During the past 1,200 years, four major mega-droughts occurred in the American West: during the 800s, the mid-1100s, the 1200s, and the late 1500s.”
University of Arizona's publications summarize that the period of drought between the years 2000 and 2018 was the second driest of all 19-year periods in the past 1,200 years, but they also show that the U.S. West has already entered into mega-drought conditions which have historically lasted anywhere from 50 to 100 years. (LINK),
Researchers are surprised at what they are finding because these ancient droughts have always been considered remarkable events which happened only in prehistory and are of little concern to governments today. They warn that,
“These mega-droughts looked nothing like what modern society in the 1920s had ever dealt with. At that point these Medieval mega-droughts started being talked about almost mythically... The conclusion now, that we may be actually converging on one of these events, is really something else.”
Looking at the near term history and future for the U.S. Food industry Drew Learner notes that the “...pattern playing out since 2020 is the same 22-year solar cycle that brought on extreme North America droughts like that of the 1930s and 1950s as well as less extreme droughts of the early 2000s, the middle 1970s and from 1912-1914. The same extremes have been seen in South America, and the latest drought and extreme heat in Argentina, Paraguay and southwestern Brazil can be directly associated with La Niña and its simultaneous occurrence in this current 22-year solar cycle." (LINK),
He continues with, “Most periods following the solar minimum usually have a multi-year La Niña event that removes moisture from the mid-latitudes and adds it to the tropics. The multi-year La Niña event usually leads to a dryness problem in both South America and North America and World Weather, Inc. believes these dryness issues are more severe in every other solar cycle.” (LINK),
The longer dryness prevails the more extreme our atmospheric conditions become. As noted above, both North and South America have seen some rapid, drastic swings in temperature over the past few years, the results of which are increasing coffee prices this year. Learner also observes that extreme temperatures (high and low), plus low moisture content are causing soil in the US Plains to break down to a fine powder resulting in increasing amounts of airborne dust and dirt.
Strong and prolonged winds brought about because of drought and the large temperature differential from one part of the continent to another will strip farm fields of top-soil very quickly under these conditions. Sounds very 'dust bowl' to me. (LINK),
7. Gradual Atmospheric Water Loss
Ken Gregory at 'Friends Of Science' has prepared an excellent analysis of global atmospheric water concentration and finds that Earth has Not experienced the increase in atmospheric water required to amplify the effects of CO2 to meet IPCC predictive models. In fact global atmospheric moisture content, although far from displaying a geographically constant mixture, is generally decreasing. (LINK),
Mr. Gregory writes that, “An analysis of NASA satellite data shows that water vapor, the most important greenhouse gas, has declined in the upper atmosphere causing a cooling effect that is 16 times greater than the warming effect from man-made greenhouse gas emissions during the period 1990 to 2001.
Most scientists agree that doubling the amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the atmosphere, which takes about 150 years, would theoretically warm the earth by one degree Celsius if there were no change in evaporation, the amount or distribution of water vapor and clouds.
Climate models amplify the initial CO2 effect by a factor of three by assuming positive feedbacks from water vapor and clouds, for which there is little direct evidence. Most of the amplification by the climate models is due to an increase in upper atmosphere water vapor. “ (LINK),
Global water balance calculations have had a set back these past few years because we have become aware of a globe-spanning ocean that exists beneath our feet. From what geologists have found it would appear that this water, located between two layers of crustal magma is constantly fed by ocean water that is pulled down by crustal subduction along plate edges beneath the oceans of the world.
The science journal 'Nature' suggests that the rate at which surface water is disappearing beneath the crust is increasing, although they also admit that, “The water cycle at subduction zones remains poorly understood...” (LINK), (LINK),
We have much to learn about this planet but the fact that our atmosphere is having difficulty maintaining water in the atmosphere remains a serious problem for us today and into the near future.
8. Water Loss & Planetary Magnetic Field Strength
Those climate models of which Mr. Gregory speaks estimate a global water loss to outer space to be approximately 26,000 litres per day. This estimated, daily ionic outflow is based on data from satellite STEREO-B during its one and only observations of Earth's gas/electromagnetic 'tail' during a Solar minima in February of 2007.
That single observation, taken when the sun was weak is continually used for reference today even though we know that there are linear correlations between the cyclic solar wind magnetic flux, the rate of oxygen/hydrogen ion flow out of Earth's atmosphere and Earth's weakening magnetic field strength. (LINK),
Masatoshi Yamauchi of the Swedish Institute of Space Sciences has, through more recent satellite data observed a very great difference in atmospheric loss to space between typical solar minimum and solar maximum periods.
He writes that current (2019) “statistics of the solar energy flux, solar wind, and Kp dependences of these O+ outflows in these regions show that solar wind dynamic pressure, solar wind coupling function, and Kp are the most influencing parameters, with 1.5 orders of magnitude difference between quiet and active cases.” (LINK),
Here is an excellent power-point presentation from the European Space Agency on water loss, solar flux and the influence of a planetary magnetic field; (LINK)
Solar wind & atmospheric stripping. Multi-disciplinary study: (LINK),
Science currently associates the lack of water on the planets Mars and Venus with their lack of a magnetic field. Earth's magnetic field, which they believe keeps our atmosphere in place has been weakening since a catastrophic solar flare hit us in 1859 (Carrington event), energizing our atmosphere so severely that the Aurora Borealis was visible over the island of Cuba. (LINK), (LINK),
We know our field began weakening at that point in time because magnetometers have been in use to measure and record Earth's 'magnetic strength' since their invention in 1833. (LINK), (LINK), (LINK), (LINK),
What science cannot agree on is the rate at which our magnetic field is weakening, or at least there is an argument on paper. Since the introduction of electronics and the advent of satellite technology to the study of our field we have very accurate, real time data on its strength and morphology but NASA and other agencies appear loathe to release it.
Mainstream Science says that the rate of weakening is between 6% and 10% per century. However other scientists relying on information from independent magnetometers and satellite data generated by people and institutions free of political influence believe the field to be weakening at 10% per decade (10x faster), plus the rate of decrease accelerating, albeit not in a linear fashion.
Why does this matter? How is the weakening magnetic field related to increased atmospheric 'loss'?
Janet Luhmann of UC Berkeley Space Sciences Lab in her 2007 presentation, 'Solar History Effects on Venus and Earth Climate' illustrates how the Sun becomes more influential on atmospheric ion outflow as a planets magnetic field weakens. Her works shows that, “As Earth loses the protection of her magnetic field, solar wind particles (mostly protons) directly deposit energy in areas of atmospheres unprotected by magnetic fields. They also Ionize planetary neutrals via charge exchange and electron impact. In addition, the solar wind electric field accelerates planetary ions.
Recent efforts by Kulikov, et al., 2006, 2007 and Lammer, et al. 2006 incorporate the results of past observational efforts relating to solar effects toward climate and upper atmospheric modeling efforts. Their work adds new calculations and simulations to evaluate the role of the upper atmosphere changes and escape to space in the evolution of the atmospheres of Venus, Earth, and Mars.” (LINK),
According to Janet Luhmann Earth should be drying at a rate commensurate with our field strength loss. That means Ken Gregory should continue to see less atmospheric moisture and it means that our world should continue to see greater and greater temperature extremes. (LINK),
Why the temperature extremes?
Applying the laws of physics and some historical examples one finds that the lack of water in an atmosphere removes its 'thermal flywheel' governing global atmospheric conditions. Without sufficient water to buffer the absorption and release of heat energy in the atmosphere our climate will begin to swing more rapidly between greater extremes of hot and cold. Effects of solar energy injected into our magnetosphere and atmosphere will become stronger and more localized than they have been, creating opposite temperature extremes within close proximity to one another over land and water that will generate increasingly high wind velocities between them. (LINK), (LINK), (LINK), (LINK), (LINK), (LINK),
Global Temperature & Society
9. Historical Warming & Societal Impact
Since the end of the last Ice Age (approximately twelve thousand years ago) there have been at least five substantial solar maxima; a period when the Sun produces many more sunspots than average and releases more energy into the solar system than average. Energy released during these maxima drive temperature 'peaks' on Earth which are recorded in the lake beds, tree-rings and ice cores of the Northern Hemisphere.
Each of these peaks has seen the average air temperature over land exceed the mean (averaged over 12,000 years of data) temperature by more than 1/2 of a degree Celsius, often by more than 3 full degrees in some locations. Three exceptionally warm periods have occurred over the most recent 5,000 years and each period has been host to rapid developments in human society and technology.
Our most recent 'historical' temperature peak was recorded approximately 1,000 years ago and is known as the Medieval Warm Period; a time of cultural and physical growth that was witness to the rise of 'Church' power and the construction of majestic cathedrals and palaces across Europe. Temperatures in the Northern hemisphere peaked between the years1200 and 1250, and the warm period ended about 1350 AD, sliding rapidly into the 'Little Ice Age.'
Our current warm period began approximately 300 years ago and the steady warming ushered in the Industrial Age with its advancements in agricultural, science, health and technology.
It would appear that our current temperature peak occurred in the late 1950's just as the space race was getting underway and our world has been gradually cooling since then. How rapidly this next decline into global cooling occurs is a matter of debate at the moment but the issue is not 'if' we will return to a mini ice age but whether it happens this solar cycle or the next. That uncertainty aside the fact remains that our current warm period has come to an end and we are already seeing the effects of this change on societies around the world.
10. Historical South American Climate Impact on Society
Drew Learner spoke of conditions in the Southern hemisphere being a forerunner of what the North can expect in the near term however very little has been published on long term temperature variations in South America. Of what has been published to date the most cited researcher on South American climate history appears to be Marcela Cioccale of the National University of Cordoba, Argentina.
Through her efforts she has shown that warm periods coinciding with solar activity have existed in the Southern hemisphere and they have brought about improvements and advances in society as seen in Europe and Asia during those same times.
According to an article published by the 'Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change' Marcela has,
“...assembled what was known at the time about the climatic history of the central region of the country over the past 1400 years, highlighting a climatic "improvement" that began some 400 years before the start of the last millennium, which ultimately came to be characterized by a marked increase of environmental suitability, under a relatively homogeneous climate.
And as a result of this climatic improvement that marked the transition of the region from the Dark Ages Cold Period to the Medieval Warm Period the population located in the lower valleys ascended to higher areas in the Andes where they remained until around AD 1320, when the transition to the stressful and extreme climate of the Little Ice Age began.” (LINK), (LINK), (LINK), (LINK),
Sun Spots & Solar Minima
11. Historical Cooling & Societal Impact
For every temperature peak in a cycle there is at least one trough and there have been six troughs recorded over the past 12,000 years when surface temperatures across the globe dropped by at least 1/2 of a degree Celsius below the average.
That most recent temperature trough is known as the Little Ice Age; a period of short or non-existent summers and brutal winters which began approximately 375 years ago, right after the Medieval Warm Period (peak) ended. The Little Ice Age reached its coldest a little over three hundred years ago and negatively impacted societies around the globe.
Stephanie Pain has written in the publication 'New Scientist' about life in Europe during a three year period of the Little Ice Age using data compiled from a number of sources and her findings are interesting, if not a bit troubling. Ms. Pain states that;
“In 2004, Jürg Luterbacher, a climatologist at the University of Bern in Switzerland, produced a month-by-month reconstruction of Europe's climate since 1500, using a combination of direct measurements, proxy indicators of temperature such as tree rings and ice cores, and data gleaned from historical documents (Science, vol 303, p 1499).
The winter of 1708-1709 was the coldest. Across large parts of Europe the temperature was as much as 7 °C below the average for 20th-century Europe. Why it was quite so cold is harder to explain.
The Little Ice Age was at its climax and Europe was experiencing climatically turbulent times: the 1690s saw a string of cold summers and failed harvests, while the summer of 1707 was so hot people died from heat exhaustion. Overall, the climate was colder, with the sun's output at its lowest for millennia.” (LINK), (LINK),
Jürg Luterbacher, a climatologist, cannot admit that the 'hard to explain' cold was brought about because of the solar minima, although he confirms its existence at the time. To me that is odd because he has access to the same literature on solar and terrestrial climate morphology presented in this essay, plus much more.
12. Hunger Stones
History does not mean much to people unless they can see it and touch it outside of an institutional environment. This sentiment I believe goes a long way to explaining why the appearance of 'Hunger Stones' along publicly accessible water ways in parts of central Europe has become news.
A Hunger stone (hungersteine) is a large rock submerged beneath the waters of a river until exceptionally low water levels in the river make it visible. These extremely low water levels occur during times of drought conditions so severe that the local population of the time actually inscribed warnings to future generations about what is to come.
Frank Jacobs, history writer for Big Think observes that, “Hunger stones are a phenomenon with a very limited geographic scope. More than two dozen hunger stones can be found in the Elbe (River), with a particular concentration on the stretch on either side of the German-Czech border.
There are a few stones in the Rhine, in particular on or near Lake Konstanz, near the German-Swiss border, as well as individual occurrences on the Mosel and Weser in Germany, and smaller rivers in northwestern Switzerland.”
Jacobs notes that an enormous stone in the Elbe River, at the Czech city of Děčín, near the German border is the most 'infamous'. Drawings and photographs from the early 20th century show it inscribed with the phrase: Wenn du mich siehst, dann weine — “When you see me, weep.”
Of the stone, Jacobs says that, “It expressed that drought had brought a bad harvest, lack of food, high prices and hunger for poor people. Before 1900, the following droughts are commemorated on the stone: 1417, 1616, 1707, 1746, 1790, 1800, 1811, 1830, 1842, 1868, 1892, and 1893. “
Similarly, in 1904 “a stone emerged in the Spree River near the village of Trebatsch, on which was inscribed: “When you see this stone again, you’ll cry, so shallow was the water in the year 1417.”
Archives at the German city of Pirna record a stone engraved with the year 1115 but due primarily to events during WW2 its exact location is no longer known.
The most recent instances of the emergence of Hunger stones were 2018, 2015, and 2003. Perhaps the recent, increased frequency of their appearance should be a warning to Central Europe that the next 'Little Ice Age' approaches. (LINK), (LINK), (LINK),
A Drying Danube River
13. Drought In Europe Today
According to the European Drought Observatory approximately 50% of Europe is suffering from deficient soil moisture and 25% of the land mass is suffering drought severe enough to equal conditions recorded on the Hunger stones centuries ago. (LINK),
In August of this year REUTERS reported that, “The current drought appeared to be the worst in at least 500 years, assuming final data at the end of the season confirmed the preliminary assessment, the Commission said in a statement.
Summer crops have suffered, with 2022 yields for grain maize set to be 16% below the average of the previous five years and soybean and sunflowers yields set to fall by 15% and 12% respectively.
Hydropower generation has been hit, with further impact on other power producers due to a shortage of water to feed cooling systems.” (LINK),
What the REUTERS article says is that the current atmospheric situation in Europe is worse than that witnessed during the 1616 drought and perhaps the 1417 drought, a time when the 'most infamous' hunger stone was first engraved. (LINK),
In a situation all too similar to what China, parts of the African continent and the United States are experiencing now, Europe's lack of water is resulting in; rationed agricultural irrigation, substantially reduced hydroelectric power generation, limited cooling water for nuclear and hydrocarbon power generation, critical loss of river transportation and soon, limited drinking water. (LINK),
“Ministers were concerned, as am I, that this will not be an easy winter for us, and the next winter will be even more difficult,” said European Union energy commissioner Kadri Simson speaking to press after an extraordinary meeting of EU energy ministers about natural gas supply to European homes and businesses. This meeting took place in the face of Europe's 'refusal' of Russian gas and on the day of the Nord Stream pipeline bombings which have all but ended European access to that gas and ensured commissioner Simson's words will ring true for several seasons to come.
For Europeans there are other, less politicized but no less dire warnings of an approaching cold, dry winter. This past Sunday October 02, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Director-General Florence Rabier stated that, "...in November and December of 2022, Western Europe may face a period of high pressure. This is expected to usher in colder weather with less wind and rainfall, which will reduce the amount of power generated by renewable power sources."
Ms. Rabier warns that “If we have this pattern then for the energy it is quite demanding because not only is it a bit colder but also you have less wind for wind power and less precipitation for hydro power,”
She also suggests that in the short term Europe may experience milder weather due to the recent hurricanes in the Atlantic, however a Pacific La Nina may bring in colder weather later on. Ms. Rabier is echoing Drew Lerner and others when she speaks of La Nina having a ripple effects on weather across the globe and can change wind and precipitation patterns. (LINK), (LINK),
14. Water Wars
Humans have gone to war against one another for so many reasons and many of them petty, but the coming wars over food, water and energy are going to be at least as catastrophic as the weather promises to be. At a 1995 conference of world banking, industrial and political leadership the then World Bank Vice President Ismail Serageldin, who was speaking on the water crisis in the Middle East and North Africa, stated that “...in the next century wars will be fought over water and not oil.” (LINK),
When one looks closely at current events around the world it is easy to see that water conflicts were well underway over a decade ago. In 2010 the water basin in Taiz, one of Yemen’s largest cities, had already collapsed. Neighbouring Amran was next, as was Saada in the north. The water situation was so serious that the government considered moving the capital, as well as desalinating seawater on the coast and pumping it 2,000 metres uphill to the capital.
A third solution would have been to transfer water over the mountains from another basin but all of that came to nothing when Saudi & American-backed forces ousted Yemen's government and installed their own, an action that has torn the country apart and hidden the critical water shortages from the front pages. (LINK),
In 2014 the nation of Columbia was crippled by drought so severe that the Panama Canal was forced to reduce the size of ships it handled because the water level was so low. (LINK)
Overall, by 2014 more than half of all humanity were living in water-stressed areas, bottled water was already more expensive than crude oil and since the end of WW2 the United Nations had recorded/been involved in 37 incidents of water-related violence. (LINK),
In 2016 the U.S. Marine Corp published a study showing that the fresh water situation in the Euphrates-Tigris River Basin of the Middle East “...is deteriorating much faster than expected, and in a few years much of Iraq’s water supply will be undrinkable, largely due to high salinity levels.”
Their idea is that the governments of Syria and Iraq will fall in the face of severe drought and so a 'wait and see' attitude has been adopted. (LINK),
Three years later, in 2019 the New York Times observed that, “From India to Iran to Botswana, 17 countries around the world are currently under extremely high water stress, meaning they are using almost all the water they have, according to new World Resources Institute data published Tuesday.
Many are arid countries to begin with; some are squandering what water they have. Several are relying too heavily on groundwater, which instead they should be replenishing and saving for times of drought. In those countries are several big, thirsty cities that have faced acute shortages recently, including São Paulo, Brazil; Chennai, India; and Cape Town, which in 2018 narrowly beat what it called Day Zero — the day when all its dams would be dry." (LINK),
Lake Mead over time
Egypt and Sudan, both downstream of Ethiopia on the Nile River continue to contest Ethiopia's new, multi-billion dollar dam and power generating station. Inaugurated in March of this year, the reservoir diverts a substantial flow of the Nile's water, with more of it being used for irrigation of Ethiopia than originally intended. (LINK), (LINK),
Conflicts between American southern and western states are brewing and threaten to come to a head this winter as Lake Powell and Lake Mead finish drying up. The U.S.G.S. Website updates water flow along the Colorado River and its tributaries and they report tributary water flows of less than half of what they were twenty four years ago, with some now at less than 20%. Gunnison River, a major tributary of the Colorado River is flowing at less than 69% of normal, the level sits at 31% of normal and both are dropping in real time. (LINK), (LINK),
Overall there are seven (7) American states plus northern Mexico which must now fight for their share of a shrinking Colorado River. Although important and dangerous, those regional conflicts will not hold a candle to the serious water wars we face as China runs out of fresh water and her economy begins to collapse, just as it is doing today.
For example, one serious point of contention China faces today is how she uses the Mekong River and what volume and quality of water will be left for her neighbours down stream.
The Mekong rises in China but is one of Southeast Asia’s most important international rivers, flowing through through Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia and Vietnam before reaching the South China Sea. In the fall of 2019 water levels in the headwaters dropped to their lowest in more than 100 years while the south and river delta areas were the driest since record keeping began. These conditions persist today and the continued negative impact a lack of water has on industry and infrastructure is already creating rifts in their relationships; rifts which external powers seeking regional influence are keen to exploit. (LINK),
What happens when the Mekong River and China's other important rivers are reduced to a poluted trickle and her ground water sucked dry? Where will she turn for fresh water?
Russia, which has twenty percent of the world's fresh water and sits next door, has no reservations about China's laser-like focus on the resource. According to Geopolitika, a Russian geopolitical think tank, the forcible control of Tibet and other territory in the Himalayas is just one step in their plan for water security.
Geopolitika write that, “China’s domination of Tibet is the key to understanding the approaching geo-political crisis that is likely to emerge in the next few decades. The domination of Tibet means that China controls the Himalayan headways of the main rivers of India and South-east Asia that provide sustenance to the agriculture and energy of these immense territories. Seldom is this strategic importance of Tibet realised.
With China facing problems of irrigation and drought, the Beijing leadership will not hesitate to use the Himalayan headwaters for whatever manner they deem apt for China’s interests. There can be no question that China is not restrained by any moral or neighbourly considerations, despite the rapport China now seemingly has with Russia and Central Asia.
China’s leadership is guided by a ruthless realpolitik that considers China’s interests alone. When faced with any question as to China’s interests especially in regard to territory and resources, the façade of good neighbourliness quickly drops, as in the example of China’s ongoing territorial disputes with India. “ (LINK), (LINK), (LINK), (LINK),
Canada, it should be noted has the most surface fresh water of any nation on Earth and the current Canadian government is very friendly with the Chinese, allowing Chinese resource extraction and almost unfettered immigration of Chinese citizens.
15. Summary & Conclusions
The overall premise of this essay and one which I hope that it has proven, is that the atmospheric and geomagnetic environments of every planet in our solar system are connected to, and impacted by the sun and its cyclical energy output.
By compiling data from different areas of scientific, geological, historical and astrological study, evidence is presented to illuminate the presence and intensity of long-duration solar cycles through the past few thousand years. Dating of these cycles is compared to the dating of historical terrestrial climate cycles plus milestones in global, cultural development.
Results of that comparison show intimate correlation between solar activity, terrestrial climate and human development through time.
Historical warm periods have fostered the growth of the Minoan and Roman empires while our most recent warm period, which began in the mid 1700's and has lasted through to the end of the 20th century has seen the growth of the British Empire, the United States, the industrial revolution and the space age to name just a few 'advancements'.
Sadly there appears to be a double standard in scientific reporting today when business, banking and government use recent satellite data and trends developed from historical solar and terrestrial climate data to plot the future, yet labelling it as 'pseudo-science' if the public explore it.
Global leadership goes so far as to suggest that our current problems are a result of warming as Susan Duclos at ANP writes of a recent United Nations conference on climate where; "United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres gave a grim assessment of global developments on Tuesday, September 20th. Guterres said that we are looking at a fairly gloomy and dark upcoming “winter of global discontent” from rising prices, a warming planet, and deadly conflicts.
“Our world is in peril,” Guterres told the opening of the United Nation’s 193-member annual assembly in New York. “A winter of global discontent is on the horizon,” (LINK),
He got the 'peril' part right but for the wrong reason.
His words are dangerous because the stance he and AGW supporters are taking is to remove the use of natural gas and oil for heating and cooking in new homes and business from California to Berlin. The United Nations are doing this at a time when the many failings of 'renewable, green' energy are coming to light and the need for more hydrocarbon derived energy is fast approaching.
You don't need to 'believe' me or Guterres because dogma is what will kill us. I pray that you will use the links and information provided in this essay to do your own research and arrive at your own conclusions.